The data is clear: there is no ‘Jewish exodus’ from the UK

How many people migrated from the UK to Israel in recent years?

Over the past thirty years, the average number of people migrating to Israel from the UK has been just under 500 per annum, ranging from a high of 708 (in 2009) to a low of 284 (in 2002). Assuming these are all Jews (which they are not, although most are), we can reliably estimate that fewer than two British Jews in every 1,000 typically make aliyah every year.

But is there any evidence to demonstrate that the number “surged” in 2024 or “doubled” compared to 2023? With final figures for 2024 yet to be released, we cannot be certain, but based on data for the period covering January to November from Israel’s Central Bureau of Statistics – by far and away the most reliable source – we can project that the final figure for the year will be around the 570-mark.

Placed in the context of the past thirty years, this is above average by about 15%. But equally, the final count for 2023 – which was 396 – was below average by about 20%. And if you take the two counts together and average across them – a not unimportant exercise given the unusually low count for 2023 (indeed, it was the lowest since 2005) – they quickly revert to the 30-year mean at a little below 500.

Just 1% of British Jews made aliya over the past seven years

So, the suggestion that some kind of ‘exodus’ is happening is frankly nonsensical. To put the data into a broader perspective, about 1% of all British Jews have made aliyah over the past seven years. In the seven years of pre-war Nazi rule in Germany (1933-39), 50% of German Jews emigrated. In the seven years following the collapse of communism in the Former Soviet Union, 53% of all Soviet Jews left. In the 1960s, 72% of all Jews in Morocco and Tunisia emigrated, as did 75% of all Jews in Algeria. Those are all real examples of what an exodus looks like.

Equally importantly, in those examples, the levels of out-migration were not offset by Jews moving in the opposite direction – i.e. into Germany, the Soviet Union, Morocco, Tunisia or Algeria. That is not the case with Jews in the UK. Indeed, according to the latest data we have, for every two British Jews making aliyah, three Israelis are moving in the opposite direction.

All of that said, we can detect a slight attitudinal shift among British Jews about migration since the October 7 attacks. It’s not reflected in the actual number of people leaving. Still, the conversation about migration in Jewish families appears to have moved up a small notch from wherever it was previously. So those who already seriously considered it may now be making more tangible plans. Those who have never remotely considered it may have had their first thoughts about it in hypothetical terms. These are subtle shifts, unlikely to be acted upon in the vast majority of cases unless there is either a serious economic downturn in Britain – the most common driver of migration – or, to a lesser extent, serious political instability, social unrest, terrorism or violence.

At JPR, we monitor these trends carefully to help support serious community planning. A key reason our work is so critical is that in such a competitive and fast-moving media and communications landscape, sensationalist claims about countless issues are constantly being made, affecting the community’s ability to identify the actual and most urgent problems and tackle them appropriately. The truth – revealed only by careful and accurate analysis of reliable data – is ever more challenging to discern. But that’s what JPR is for – and we’ll keep doing it to help support policymaking for the Jewish community as long as we have the capacity and support to do so.